No other professional sports draft is more of a crapshoot than the baseball draft. While NFL and NBA teams can look at college production, many of the best players are high school players who haven't faced any high-level pitching or hitting. Teams are looking at potential down the line.
Sometimes it works, such as with the 10 players below, and sometimes it doesn't. Only two players (Steve Chilcott, the top pick in 1966 by the Mets, and Brien Taylor, the top pick in 1991 by the Yankees,) never made it to the majors.
Ranking the top 10 top overall draft picks, based on past production and future potential:
1. Alex Rodriguez, 1993, Seattle Mariners
Career stats (as of June 8, 2007): 14 seasons, .305, 486 home runs, 1,403 RBI, 247 SB, two gold gloves
He’s more well known these days for his contract and being a New York celebrity, but there’s been no better No. 1 overall draft pick than A-Rod, who was selected out of Westminster High School in Palmetto Bay, Fla., in 1993 at age 17. He shot through the minor-league system and made his debut in 1994 at age 18 for the Mariners. A two-time American League MVP, he’s perhaps the most criticized player in baseball history. But he's also already a no-doubt first-ballot Hall of Fame player when he retires.
2. Ken Griffey Jr., 1987, Seattle Mariners
Career stats (as of June 8, 2007): 19 seasons, .290, 577 HR, 1,643 RBI, 180 SB, 13 gold gloves
The Mariners either are very good at the draft or had uncanny luck to land both Rodriguez and Griffey, who both played on the Mariners’ AL West championship teams in 1995 and 1997. Griffey was a can’t-miss pick at No. 1 out of Cincinnati Moeller High School, and made his debut at age 19. He arguably was the best power hitter in the game in the 1990s and an annual Gold Glove selection in center field. Injuries have slowed him down in his later years with his hometown Reds, but he’s still a first-ballot Hall of Fame pick.
3. Chipper Jones, 1990, Atlanta Braves
Career stats (as of June 8, 2007): 14 seasons, .304, 369 HR, 1224 RBI
Griffey and Rodriguez have never won a championship, but Larry Wayne Jones did as a rookie with the Braves in 1995, and he was a postseason fixture with Atlanta for 11 consecutive seasons. He was drafted No. 1 out of The Bolles School in Jacksonville, Fla., and he's been a consistent run-producer ever since, hitting more than 20 home runs in every full big-league season and driving in 100 runs or more for eight consecutive seasons (1996-2003). He was selected National League MVP in 1999. With a few more solid seasons, he’s Cooperstown-bound.
4. Harold Baines, 1977, Chicago White Sox
Career stats: 22 seasons, .289, 384 HR, 1628 RBI
Baines was picked No. 1 overall out of St. Michael’s High School in Easton, Md., and – somewhat under the radar – he was one of the best run-producers ever. His 1,628 RBI rank 11th in American League history. He made his debut in 1980, the first of three stints with the White Sox. He’s known in Texas as the player the Rangers received for Sammy Sosa in a 1990 trade. He continued to be productive late in his career, driving in 103 runs with the Orioles and Cleveland Indians in 1999. He retired two years later at age 42.
5. Darryl Strawberry, 1980, New York Mets
Career stats: 17 seasons, .259, 335 HR, 1,000 RBI
He anchored the Mets’ lineup in the late 1980s, and seemed on the way to immortality before substance abuse issues, repeated arrests and colon cancer slowed down a promising career. The smooth-swinging left-hander, the 1983 National League Rookie of the Year, still played 17 seasons after being drafted out of Crenshaw High School in Los Angeles and will be remembered as one of the best power hitters of his generation.
6. Rick Monday, 1965, Kansas City Athletics
Career stats: 19 seasons, .264 average, 241 HR, 775 RBI
Summary: Monday was the original draft pick, the first in baseball history in the first year of the draft by the Kansas City Athletics. He made his big-league debut a year later and was a starter in the outfield for the A’s by 1967. He later played for the Cubs and was a key reserve for some great Los Angeles Dodgers teams in the late 1970s and early 1980s.
7. Darrin Erstad, 1995, California Angels
Career stats (as of June 8, 2007): 12 seasons, .285, 116 HR, 646 RBI, 177 SB, three Gold Gloves
The first college player on this list, he played baseball and football at Nebraska, winning a national championship in 1994 as the Cornhuskers’ punter. But he was a better baseball player, and made his big-league debut a year after he was drafted by the Angels. He played his first 11 seasons with the Angels, where he was one of the best center fielders in the AL (later moving to first base), and was on their championship team in 2002. He’s currently in his first season with the Chicago White Sox.
8. Joe Mauer, 2001, Minnesota Twins
Career stats (as of June 8, 2007): Four seasons, .323 average, 29 HR, 170 RBI
He has a chance to fly up this list. Picked No. 1 out of Cretin-Derham Hall High School in St. Paul, Minn., the hometown Twins found a gem close to home. He made his big-league debut as the Twins’ opening day catcher in 2004, but was injured for most of the season. In 2006, Mauer became the first catcher in American League history to lead the league in hitting, batting .347.
9. Bob Horner, 1978, Atlanta Braves
Career stats: 10 seasons, .277 average, 218 HR, 685 RBI
Horner was such a can’t-miss prospect that he went straight from Arizona State to Atlanta’s starting lineup at third base in 1978 at age 20, and became the NL Rookie of the Year, hitting 23 home runs in just 323 at-bats. But injuries never let Horner live up to his potential, and he never had 100 RBI in his career, peaking at 97 in 1982, when the Braves won the NL West. When healthy, he was one of the best sluggers in the majors, hitting four of his 218 career home runs in one game against Montreal in 1986. He retired in 1989 at age 31 after a shoulder injury.
10. Andy Benes, 1988, San Diego Padres
Career stats: 14 seasons, 155-139 record, 3.97 ERA
The only pitcher on the list, he was drafted out of Evansville University and made the majors at age 21. He was a decent middle-of-the-rotation starter throughout the 1990s, and had his best season at age 28 in 1996, going 18-10 for the Cardinals and finishing third in the NL Cy Young voting. He retired in 2002 at age 34 with an arthritic knee.
Honorable mention: Pat Burrell, OF-1B (1998, Phillies); Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (2000, Marlins); Phil Nevin, 3B (1992, Astros); Mike Moore, P (1981, Mariners); Jeff Burroughs, OF (1969, Senators); Shawon Dunston, SS (1982, Cubs)
