Thursday November 12, 2009
Baseball's Gold Glove winners, honoring the top fielders in the game, are always going to have a tendency to be flawed, because defense can be subjective. The sabermetrics folks have fielding stats, too, and they scoff at the Gold Gloves because the managers and coaches select them.
The new stat used to measure fielding is the UZR (ultimate zone rating). It factors in range, arm, and fielding percentage in a form of runs saved or cost, in comparison to an average fielder. (Click here for a more detailed explanation.)
How well do the managers and coaches do compared to the stats? Not well at all. Just two players, Placido Polanco (2B) and Evan Longoria (3B), were the leaders in UZR at their positions. And in the NL? Three: Ryan Zimmerman (3B), Yadier Molina (C) and Jimmy Rollins (SS).
Why is this flawed? A lot of times, it's a popularity contest. Derek Jeter won a Gold Glove this week, but is he really the best fielder? He's a solid one who is popular within the game and outside the game. But he's 35 and doesn't have great range. In fact, his range might be the worst at shortstop in the majors.
Some snickered when Jeter won his first Gold Glove in 2004. Now he has four, thanks to only committing eight errors in 2009. He makes all the routine plays - does that constitute a Gold Glove winner?
Jeter became the oldest to win a Gold Glove at shortstop since Luis Aparicio, who was 36 when awarded the last of his nine Gold Gloves in 1970. He had a very good year.
That doesn't mean Jeter really deserves a Gold Glove.
List: 2009 Gold Glove winners.
Wednesday November 11, 2009
The Elias rankings are out, which is one of those moments in the offseason that seems to become more important every year.
The draft each June seems to take on more importance every year as salaries escalate for the top picks. Scouting has never been better; few prospects fall through the cracks. A first-round pick is now more valuable in many cases than a decent free agent, especially to a rebuilding team. And there's the rub in the current free agent/draft pick system.
Any team that picks a Type A free agent - defined as a player in the top 20 percent of players at his position - loses its first-round draft pick next season. So being defined as a Type A free agent is not as good as it sounds for a player - it means teams that treasure their draft picks are going to think twice about getting involved in free agent bidding.
It only affects half of the teams. Those that finished in the bottom half of the major league standings can't surrender their first-round selection. And a team must offer arbitration to a free agent in order to receive compensation for him.
Now for the top free agents - guys this offseason such as Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and John Lackey - this won't matter much at all. They're legitimate star players, guys who are worth losing the pick. But for some reason, the Elias rankings have a flaw, and middle relievers are overvalued, especially this year.
Juan Cruz was hurt by this last season. He was inexplicably a Type A last year and wasn't signed until after spring training started, agreeing to a two-year deal with the Royals, who as a bottom-feeder didn't have to yield a first-rounder.
Players on that list this year: Rafael Betancourt (Rockies), John Grabow (Cubs), Kevin Gregg (Cubs), Darren Oliver (Angels), LaTroy Hawkins (Astros). Decent middle/setup relievers? Sure. Worth giving up a first-round pick? No way.
Check out: Free agent list - with Type A/Type B breakdowns.
Monday November 9, 2009
When a team wins a World Series, shirts and hats are passed out on the field, seconds after the final out. They're on the shelves of the team shop immediately. The same happens in other sports, too.
It's not a T-shirt printer working a lot of overtime, either. Hundreds of shirts and hats are pressed well ahead of time, and there's no guesswork involved. They do them well in advance for all of the teams still alive in the playoffs.
But while actress Alyssa Milano - a huge Dodgers fan - has her own clothing line on MLB.com, she can't get her hands on any Dodgers World Series Champions 2009 T-shirts. (Nor would she want any - she certainly would want the Dodgers to earn it.) The gear is on its way to Indonesia, Zambia, El Salvador, Nicaragua or Romania. There would be a black market for them if they stayed in the United States, and sending the shirts and hats abroad is the best for both the leagues and for World Vision, a humanitarian organization.
"Most people who receive these jerseys and T-shirts would not know who the Yankees and the Phillies are," Rich Stearns of World Vision told the Associated Press. "They are just looking at these as new clothes."
Saturday November 7, 2009
In the first two days after the season, the storm clouds are already forming. And Bobby Abreu saw them.
The Angels outfielder, who waited all offseason for offers that never came before the 2009 season, agreed to a one-year, $5 million bargain deal just before spring training. After a good season (.293, 15 HR, 103 RBI, 30 SB) in Anaheim, and seeing that it likely will be no better this year, Abreu stayed with the Angels for two years and $19 million. Sure, it's a raise, but he wasn't going to re-live last offseason. He made $16 million with the Yankees in 2008.
Manny Ramirez did the same, agreeing to his one-year, $20 million option. That's a no-brainer - no player will sign a deal for a bigger one-year salary this offseason, and Ramirez did not have a great season in 2009 (.290, 19 HR, 63 RBI).
"Money is tight all over the world and certainly on the South Side," Chicago general manager Ken Williams told the AP after trading for the Royals' Mark Teahen and declining the $12 million option on outfielder Jermaine Dye. "We're going to spend whatever we have available, but it's not much."
Who else is on the market? Check out the updated free agent scorecard.