Schedule
- Game 1: at New York, Wednesday, Oct. 7, 6:07 p.m.
- Game 2: at New York, Friday, Oct. 9, 6:07 p.m.
- Game 3: at Minnesota, Sunday, Oct. 11, TBA
- Game 4: (if necessary) at Minnesota, Monday, Oct. 12, TBA
- Game 5: (if necessary) at New York, Wednesday, Oct. 14, TBA
Twins projected lineup
- CF Denard Span (.311, 8 HR, 68 RBI, 23 SB)
- SS Orlando Cabrera (.282, 9 HR, 77 RBI, combined A's and Twins)
- C Joe Mauer (.365, 28 HR, 96 RBI)
- RF Jason Kubel (.300, 28 HR, 103 RBI)
- 1B Michael Cuddyer (.276, 32 HR, 94 RBI)
- LF Delmon Young (.284, 12 HR, 60 RBI)
- DH Jose Morales (.311, 0 HR, 7 RBI)
- 3B Matt Tolbert (.232, 2 HR, 19 RBI)
- 2B Nick Punto (.228, 1 HR, 38 RBI)
Yankees projected lineup
- SS Derek Jeter (.334, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB)
- LF Johnny Damon (.282, 24, 82 RBI)
- 1B Mark Teixeira (.292, 39 HR, 122 RBI)
- 3B Alex Rodriguez (.286, 30 HR, 100 RBI)
- DH Hideki Matsui (.274, 28 HR, 90 RBI)
- C Jorge Posada (.285, 22 HR, 81 RBI)
- 2B Robinson Cano (.320, 25 HR, 85 RBI)
- RF Nick Swisher (.249, 29 HR, 82 RBI)
- CF Melky Cabrera (.274, 13 HR, 68 RBI)
Twins projected rotation
- LHP Brian Duensing (5-2, 3.64 ERA)
- RHP Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.03 ERA)
- RHP Carl Pavano (14-12, 5.10 ERA, combined Indians and Twins)
- RHP Scott Baker (15-9, 4.37 ERA)
Yankees projected rotation
- LHP CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37 ERA)
- RHP A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04 ERA)
- LHP Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16 ERA)
Inside the matchups
Hitting: Mauer has had one of the best seasons ever for a catcher, winning the batting title and setting a career-high in homers. Cuddyer became the everyday first baseman when All-Star Justin Mourneau injured his back in early September and was lost for the season. He hit 30 homers and drove in 100 in just 135 games. Morales took over as the DH, a big drop-off from Cuddyer. The Twins also lost starting 3B Joe Crede at midseason, and the infield spots have been fluid all season for longtime Twins manager Ron Gardenhire. The Yankees' lineup is one of the team's best of all-time, and that's saying something. Every starter has at least 13 homers and 66 RBI, and that low mark in RBI is the total of Derek Jeter, the leadoff hitter and an MVP candidate. Alex Rodriguez, who missed the first month of the season after hip surgery, needed seven RBI on the final day of the season to get to 100 for the 12th consecutive year, and got it in one 10-run inning. The Yankees led the majors with 915 runs and also led in home runs, on-base percentage and extra-base hits. Edge: Yankees.
Bench:Alexi Casilla (.202, 0 HR, 17 RBI) was a disappointment at second base, but had the huge hit in the one-game tiebreaker victory over Detroit in the 12th inning. IF Brendan Harris (.261, 6 HR) and speedy Carlos Gomez (.229 ,3 HR, 14 SB) could also be options at DH for the Twins. For the Yankees, Brett Gardner (.270, 3 HR, 23 RBI), a superior defensive player could also play in center field to spell Cabrera. Jose Molina (.217, 1 HR) will catch Burnett in Game 2 despite the objection of longtime Yankees catcher Posada, a controversial subject in the clubhouse. Edge: Even.
Starting pitching: The Twins' rotation is practically backward for the series because of a tight AL Central race that wasn't decided until two days after the regular season was completed, a 12-inning victory in a tiebreaker game over Detroit. Duensing threw well down the stretch, and the rookie will get the call in Game 1. Yankees ace CC Sabathia does not have a solid playoff resume (2-3, 7.92 ERA in five playoff starts) but has had great success against the Twins, especially at the Metrodome, where he's 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA in his last seven starts. Burnett is making his postseason debut, and Pettitte, at No. 3, has more playoff wins (14) than both teams' starters combined. Edge: Yankees.
Bullpen:The top two closers in the game might be facing off in this series. Joe Nathan (2-2, 2.10 ERA, 47 saves) had another great year in Minnesota. He's backed by righty Matt Guerrier (5-1, 2.36), lefty Jose Mihares (2-2, 2.34), lefty Ron Mahay (2-1, 4.29), and righty Bobby Jeppel (1-1, 4.83, who threw well under pressure in the tiebreaker game. Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.76, 44 saves in 46 chances) was typically great, and righty Phil Hughes (8-3, 3.03) was fantastic in a setup role. Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75 as starter) is in the bullpen for this series. He was great in the late innings in 2007. Righty Alfredo Aceves was a sparkling 10-1 in relief as well. Edge: Yankees.
Why the Twins will win
They're on a roll, becoming the first team to win a division despite trailing by three games with four to play. They won their last five games entering the postseason, including the tiebreaker game. With nothing to lose, they will play loose and relaxed. The pressure goes up about 100 notches for the Yankees, especially for Rodriguez, who is well known for going cold in the postseason. He's 0 for his last 18 with runners in scoring position in the playoffs. The Yankees have lost 13 of their last 17 playoff games. And the ballpark factor - these are their final games in the playoff-friendly Metrodome - is in their favor.
Why the Yankees will win
They obviously have more talent and are more rested, making the Twins play Game 1 less than 24 hours after their tiebreaker win. They swept the Twins in two series this season, going 7-0. The only thing that stops the Yankees, especially in this round, is themselves.
Prediction
Yankees in three.
