2009 NL Championship Series Preview: Dodgers vs. Phillies

Schedule

TV: TBS

• Game 1: at Los Angeles, Thursday, Oct. 15, 8:07 p.m.
• Game 2: at Los Angeles, Friday, Oct. 16, 4:07 p.m.
• Game 3: at Philadelphia, Sunday, Oct. 18, 8:07 p.m.
• Game 4: at Philadelphia, Monday, Oct. 19, 8:07 p.m.
• Game 5: (if neccesary) at Philadelphia, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 8:07 p.m.
• Game 6: (if neccesary) at Los Angeles, Friday, Oct. 23, 8:07 p.m.
• Game 7: (if neccesary) at Los Angeles, Saturday, Oct. 24, 8:07 p.m.

Dodgers projected lineup

1. SS Rafael Furcal (.269, 9 HR, 47 RBI)
2. RF Andre Ethier (.272, 31 HR, 106 RBI)
3. LF Manny Ramirez (.290, 19 HR, 63 RBI)
4. CF Matt Kemp (.297, 26 HR, 101 RBI, 34 SB)
5. 3B Casey Blake (.280, 18 HR, 79 RBI)
6. 1B James Loney (.281, 13 HR, 90 RBI)
7. 2B Ronnie Belliard (.277, 10 HR, 39 RBI)
8. C Russell Martin (.250, 7 HR, 53 RBI)
9. Pitcher

Phillies projected lineup

1. SS Jimmy Rollins (.250, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 31 SB)
2. CF Shane Victorino (.292, 10 HR, 62 RBI, 25 SB)
3. 2B Chase Utley (.282, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB)
4. 1B Ryan Howard (.279, 45 HR, 141 RBI)
5. RF Jayson Werth (.268, 36 HR, 99 RBI)
6. LF Raul Ibanez (.272, 34 HR, 93 RBI)
7. 3B Pedro Feliz (.266, 12 HR, 82 RBI)
8. C Carlos Ruiz (.255, 9 HR, 43 RBI)
9. Pitcher

Dodgers projected rotation

• LHP Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79 ERA)
• RHP Vincente Padilla (12-6, 4.46 ERA combined Rangers and Dodgers)
• RHP Hiroki Kuroda (8-7, 3.76 ERA)
• LHP Randy Wolf (11-7, 3.23 ERA)

Phillies projected rotation

• LHP Cole Hamels (10-11, 4.32 ERA)
• RHP Pedro Martinez (5-1, 3.63 ERA)
• LHP Cliff Lee (14-13, 3.39 ERA combined Indians and Phillies)
• LHP J.A. Happ (12-4, 2.93 ERA)
• RHP Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.05 ERA)

Inside the matchups

Hitting: The Phillies have the best lineup in the NL, and proved it in the first round with rallies to beat the Rockies in the clutch. They hit 79 more home runs during the season, have speed at the top of the order and production throughout. The Dodgers are decent, but can go through stretches where they disappear a bit. Adding Ronnie Belliard instead of Orlando Hudson has added a bit of pop to the order, but he's no Chase Utley. Hudson (.283, 9 HR, 62 RBI) made the All-Star team in July, but Belliard made all three starts in the Division Series round. Manny Ramirez hasn't hit a homer in 44 at-bats. He hit two homers in the NLCS last year, and is needed in this series. Edge: Phillies.

Bench: The team's top pinch hitters are basically mirror images of each other at this point. The Dodgers have Jim Thome, who hasn't hit a homer since he was traded to the NL. The Phillies have Matt Stairs, who came through last season in the playoffs. Both seem to be aging quickly. Phillies OF Ben Francisco played well as a defensive replacement in the late innings against the Rockies. The Dodgers have Juan Pierre (.308, 30 SB) and Hudson to run the bases in the late innings, pinch hit to lead off an inning or even start, depending on the matchup. Edge: Dodgers.

Starting pitching: The Dodgers, who have had a patchwork rotation all season, are going with a 21-year-old in Game 1 in Clayton Kershaw, a roll of the dice by Joe Torre on his hard-throwing lefty. Kershaw was 0-2 against the Phillies in the regular season, however. Torre also mixed things up by going with Hiroki Kuroda instead of Jon Garland in Game 3. Kuroda has a 0.95 ERA in three career starts against the Phillies, but is coming back from a neck injury. Garland (11-13, 4.01) didn't even make the NLCS roster. After Hamels (2-0 in NLCS last season) in Game 1, it's uncertain what Phillies manager Charlie Manuel will do, but all signs point to Pedro Martinez, who comes full circle in his career by pitching against the team he broke in with. He hasn't pitched in the playoffs since the 2004 World Series. Cliff Lee, who threw two great games in the Division Series against the Rockies, will be the Game 3 starter, which puts him on standard rest for a possible Game 7. Edge: Phillies.

Bullpen: The Dodgers have been solid all around in the bullpen, with lefty George Sherrill (1-1, 1.70) and Jonathan Broxton (7-2, 2.61, 36 of 42 saves) locking down the eighth and ninth innings and a solid crew behind them. Chad Billingsley, a starter during the season, will be in the bullpen for the NLCS. The resurgence of Brad Lidge (0-8, 7.21, 31 saves) was probably the biggest story of the Division Series round. Ryan Madson (5-5, 3.26, 10 saves) and Scott Eyre (2-1, 1.50) are the setup guys, and Joe Blanton (12-8, 4.05) is the likely choice to move from the rotation to the bullpen. Edge: Dodgers.

Why the Dodgers will win

They were in this position last season, against the same team, and lost in five games. They're improved this season, assuming their pitching is healthy. They're well rested, and have a steady hand in charge in Torre. It's hard to believe they haven't been to the World Series in 21 years, since the Kirk Gibson-inspired victory over the A's in 1988. It feels like they are due.

Why the Phillies will win

They answered a lot of questions in the first round, and Manuel is making all the right decisions. It's a veteran group that knows how to win. As long as the bullpen stays together, all is well. The Phils have won 14 of their last 18 playoff games.

Prediction

Dodgers in seven.