Stephen Strasburg would have been the top-ranked fantasy baseball keeper among starting pitchers.
Instead, after the No. 1 overall pick of the 2009 draft had Tommy John surgery in September, we are left to wonder if he will be the next Kerry Wood or Mark Prior.
He also could be the latest in a long line of ligament replacement success stories. What he won't be is among the top 30 keepers heading into 2011, since the Nationals' big right-hander won't return until at least the start of the 2012 season.
We start the rankings with a simple premise: We're looking for players who can help us the next two to three years, with 2011 being the most important. Beyond that, it can be a crapshoot as players age, change leagues and/or have Milton Bradley join their clubhouse.
The players' ages on April 1, 2011 are in parentheses. On to the starting pitchers:
- Tim Lincecum, Giants (age 26): Before a fantastic postseason, he had a "down" year -- down being 16 wins, a 3.43 ERA, 231 strikeouts and 1.27 WHIP. In 2008 and '09, The Freak was a combined 33-12 with a 2.55 ERA and 526 Ks in 452 1/3 innings.
- Felix Hernandez, Mariners (24): He was great in every category but wins in 2010 (13-12, 2.27 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 232 Ks), and he's won 71 games before his 25th birthday.
- Roy Halladay, Phillies (33): Forget his age. The unanimous NL Cy Young winner has won 90 games the last five seasons and was 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA in 2010.
- David Price, Rays (25): He was 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA in his second full season. The only negative: He's not a Ks-per-inning threat (302 strikeouts in 351 career innings).
- Jon Lester, Red Sox (27): He's a combined 34-17 with 450 Ks in 411 1/3 innings the last two years, and he won 19 games in 2010.
- Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (29): He's 39-19 with a 2.53 ERA and 425 Ks the last two seasons. In 2010, he had a 2.42 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
- Mat Latos, Padres (23): Not a bad first full season in the big leagues -- 14-10, 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 189 Ks in 184 2/3 innings.
- Justin Verlander, Tigers (28): He won't win you an ERA title (Verlander's is 3.41 the last two years), but since 2009, he's 37-18 with 488 Ks in 464 1/3 innings.
- Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies (27): He was 3-6 from August on, but he's won 34 games the last two years and was 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA and 214 Ks in 2010.
- Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (23): He has 14 more Ks than innings pitched in his young career (497 to 483), and he was 13-10 with a 2.91 ERA and 212 Ks in 204 1/3 innings last season.
- Cliff Lee, Rangers (32): He will command a huge salary on the free-agent market, but he didn't crack the top 10 because of his age, the fact he's only 26-22 the last two seasons and his career high is 185 Ks.
- CC Sabathia, Yankees (30): He's 40-15 with 394 strikeouts in two seasons since he hit the Steinbrenner Jackpot, with 21 of the wins coming in 2010.
- Phil Hughes, Yankees (24): If Lee signs with the Yankees, the Bronx Bombers will have three in a row on this list. Hughes was 18-8 with a pedestrian 4.19 ERA in 2010, his first full season, but his minor-league numbers were sensational (31-8, 2.37 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 367 Ks, 330 innings).
- Clay Buchholz, Red Sox (26): He was 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA, but is below Hughes because of his relatively low strikeout total (120 in 173 2/3 innings). Buchholz averaged 10.2 Ks per nine innings in the minors.
- Yovani Gallardo, Brewers (25): He's won 27 games with 404 Ks in 370 2/3 innings in his first two full major-league seasons.
- Josh Johnson, Marlins (27): He was limited to 183 2/3 innings because of injury in 2010, but produced when healthy (11-6, 2.30 ERA, 186 Ks). Johnson was 15-5 with 191 Ks in 2009.
- Cole Hamels, Phillies (27): He is a bigger name than some of the pitchers ahead of him, but since going 15-5 in 2007, Hamels is 36-32. He had 211 Ks in 208 2/3 innings in 2010.
- Francisco Liriano, Twins (27): He's 38-32 in his career, but you get the feeling he's too talented not to produce a huge season soon. Liriano was 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA and 201 Ks in 191 2/3 innings in 2010.
- Trevor Cahill, Athletics (23): He was phenomenal in his second season (18-8, 2.97 ERA), but has only 208 Ks in 375 1/3 career innings. Like Buchholz, Cahill's minor-league stats (272 Ks in 247 innings) indicate that will change.
- Jered Weaver, Angels (28): His 233 Ks in 2010 were 59 more than his previous career high. Weaver was 16-8 and fanned 174 the season before.
Honorable mention
- Max Scherzer, Tigers (age 26): His numbers from his second full season, and first with Detroit, were OK (12-11, 3.50 ERA, 184 Ks), but his stats from June 26 on were excellent (8-5, 2.20 ERA, 117 Ks in 122 2/3 innings).
- Matt Cain, Giants (26): You know him as one of the Giants' postseason studs, but Cain's regular-season numbers aren't as good as you would expect (57-62 career; 27-19 with 348 Ks the last two years).
- Zack Greinke, Royals (27): The 2009 AL Cy Young winner was a bust in 2010 (10-14, 4.17 ERA, 181 Ks), and you get the feeling he won't be the same until he leaves the Royals.
- Madison Bumgarner, Giants (21): He was 7-6 as a rookie, terrific in the postseason, and his minor-league track record is phenomenal (34-6, 2.00 ERA, 315 Ks in 355 innings).
- Tommy Hanson, Braves (24): He dropped off in 2010 (10-11, 3.33 ERA, 177 Ks) after a productive rookie campaign in '09 (11-4, 2.89, 116 Ks in 127 2/3 frames).
- Jonathan Sanchez, Giants (28): Like Cain, he's five games under .500 in the regular season (34-39). Unlike Cain, he's a strikeout machine (205 in 193 1/3 innings in 2010).
- Jaime Garcia, Cardinals (24): He was 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA as a rookie, but averaged 7.3 Ks per nine innings.
- Chad Billingsley, Dodgers (26): He was 16-10 with 201 Ks in 2008, but is 24-22 with 350 strikeouts in two years since.
- Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks (24): A decent start to his big-league career -- 8-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 84 Ks in 95 1/3 innings.
- Matt Garza, Rays (27): Another household fantasy name who is under .500 for his career (42-44). Garza did win 15 games in 2010, but had a 3.91 ERA and 54 fewer Ks than innings (150 in 204 2/3).
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