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2011 Fantasy Baseball: Overrated, Underrated, Sleepers and Busts -- Pitchers

There are some risky selections in the top 25, and plenty of possible steals

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We've ranked the players.

We've analyzed the ballparks.

We've discussed the hot stove winners and losers, and we've told you whom to keep.

Now it's time for the position-by-position analysis -- the most overrated and underrated, the potential sleepers, busts and steals, along with the key stats.

Next up: The starting pitchers. As media icon Ryan Seacrest would say, "Dim the lights. Here we go."

Overrated

  • Zack Greinke, Brewers: We explain here.
  • Wandy Rodriguez, Astros: He's a combined 25-24 the last two seasons, and in 2010 struck out 178 batters, had a 3.60 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. I think he's a No. 4 starter in a 12-team league, not an upper-end No. 3.
  • Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: He's definitely a top-tier No. 2 starter in a 12-team league, but don't draft him as your No. 1 because he doesn't help you enough in the K department. Carpenter has struck out a combined 323 batters in 427 2/3 innings the last two years, and at 35 (he will 36 on April 27), that likely won't improve in 2011.

Underrated

  • Trevor Cahill, Athletics: He topped our list of the five most underrated players in fantasy baseball.
  • Clay Buchholz, Red Sox: He was 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA in 2010, his first full big-league season. He has struck out 282 batters in 364 1/3 career innings, but his minor-league track record suggests that should change. Buchholz was 31-14 with a 2.44 ERA and 508 Ks in 447 innings down on the farm. We've seen him ranked as a low-end No. 3 starter, but he cracked our top 20 starters.
  • Madison Bumgarner, Giants: You likely can draft him as a No. 4 starter, but we'd classify him as a No. 3 after a postseason in which he was 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 18 Ks in 20 2/3 innings. Bumgarner was a remarkable 34-6 with a 2.00 ERA and 315 Ks in 355 innings in the minors.

Potential steals

  • Dan Haren, Diamondbacks, and Brandon Webb, Rangers: These former studs made our list of the top 10 draft-day steals.
  • Phil Hughes, Yankees: He should be considered an upper-end No. 3 starter, not a No. 4, after winning 18 games and striking out 146 in 176 1/3 innings in 2010, his first full season. Hughes, like Bumgarner, had phenomenal minor-league stats (31-8, 2.37 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 367 Ks in 330 innings).
  • Ryan Dempster, Cubs: Like others on this page, you can get a bargain by drafting Dempster as a No. 4 starter. He has a combined 43 wins and 567 Ks the last three seasons, and in 2010 he won 15 games and struck out 208.
  • Carlos Zambrano, Cubs: You might be able to get Zambrano as a sixth starter. If you do, will you get the pitcher who was 8-0 with a 1.24 ERA and 57 Ks in 65 1/3 innings in his final 10 starts of 2010? Of course not, but Big Z could be a bargain in the later rounds.

Potential busts

  • Jered Weaver, Angels: We like him quite a bit, but still view him as a risky selection as your No. 1 starter because of the fact Weaver's 233 Ks last season were 59 more than his previous career best. If he strikes out 200-plus, his 13-12 record isn't a big deal. If he doesn't (Weaver was 16-8 with a 3.75 ERA and 174 Ks in 2009), he's a borderline No. 2 starter, not a No. 1.
  • Max Scherzer, Tigers: He's ranked as a low-end No. 2/high-end No. 3, but that's a slightly risky choice for a pitcher who is a combined 21-22 with a 3.79 ERA in his first two full major-league seasons. Scherzer, however, is a big strikeout asset (he had 117 in 122 2/3 innings during an impressive run from June 6 on last season, a span in which Scherzer had a 2.20 ERA).

Sleepers

  • Wade Davis, Rays: He won 12 games as a rookie, and his unimpressive 2010 strikeout total (113 in 168 innings) isn't as troublesome when you realize Davis had 745 Ks in 767 innings down on the farm. He's consistently ranked in the 70s at his position, which could prove to look foolish later in the season.
  • Brian Matusz, Orioles: He was 10-12 with 143 Ks in 175 2/3 innings in his first full big-league season, and the No. 4 overall pick in the 2008 draft was 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 Ks in 113 minor-league innings. Like Davis, you can draft Matusz as your seventh starter in a 12-team league and get a possible bargain.

Key stats

  • 26-22, 185: As much as everyone loves Cliff Lee, especially the Phillies, the first set of numbers is his combined record since 2009, and the latter figure is Lee's K total in 2010 (surprisingly, a career high). He has averaged 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings the last three seasons, meaning he's a much better "real" pitcher than a fantasy pitcher.
  • 757: Tim Lincecum has averaged almost 252 strikeouts per season the last three years, as the above total since 2008 will tell you. With Adam Wainwright's elbow injury increasing the divide between the top three starting pitchers (Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez and Linceum) and the next tier, The Freak has to be considered a late first- or early second-round pick.

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2011 FANTASY BASEBALL RANKINGS: Catchers, First basemen, Second basemen, Shortstops, Third basemen, Designated hitters, Outfielders, Starting pitchers, Closers, Top 100 overall

MORE RANKINGS: Your guide to all of our 2011 fantasy baseball rankings, your guide to the top keepers in fantasy baseball

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