We've ranked the players.
We've analyzed the ballparks.
We've discussed the hot stove winners and losers, and we've told you whom to keep.
Now it's time for the position-by-position analysis -- the most overrated and underrated, the potential sleepers, busts and steals, along with the key stats.
Next up: The relief pitchers. As media icon Ryan Seacrest would say, "Dim the lights. Here we go."
Overrated
- Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: He enters the final season of his contract, and is coming off a 2010 in which he had career highs in blown saves (eight) and ERA (3.90) and posted a 1.27 WHIP, his highest since 2005. Papelbon is still good for 35-plus saves and 70-plus strikeouts (he had 37 and 76, respectively, last season), but his ERA, WHIP and losses (seven) in 2010 are enough to concern any of us who draft him as our No. 1 reliever.
Underrated
- Chris Perez, Indians: He was 16-for-17 in save chances and was 2-0 with a lights-out 0.63 ERA after the All-Star break last season. For his career, Perez has 171 Ks in 161 2/3 innings, and you should be able to draft him as a low-end No. 1 closer (our ranking of No. 10 is higher than most), after the run of the early studs has subsided.
- Brad Lidge, Phillies: We have him ranked 17th, which is higher than many sites, but would gladly take him as a No. 2 closer, helped in part by the Phillies' Fantastic Four setting the table for many save chances. Lidge struggled in 2009, but was pretty effective in 2010 (27 saves, 2.96 ERA, 52 Ks in 45 2/3 innings) and near-perfect in 2008 (41-for-41 saves, 1.95 ERA, 92 Ks in 69 1/3 innings). In those three years, Lidge saved 99 games.
Potential steals
- Francisco Rodriguez, Mets, and Craig Kimbrel, Braves: A former stud and an up-and-comer made our list of the top 10 draft-day steals.
- Joe Nathan, Twins: He is expected to be ready after missing all of last season following elbow surgery. If he's healthy, he's one of the best in the game, as evidenced by his 2004-09 run with Minnesota in which he averaged 41 saves, had a 1.02 WHIP or lower in all six seasons and posted a 2.10 ERA or lower in five of six years. You can draft Nathan as a low-end No. 2 or high-end No. 3 reliever, which could be a steal, or it could make you wish you would have selected ...
- Matt Capps, Twins: He saved a combined 42 games in 48 chances with Washington and Minnesota, and we think he's a safer choice of the two Twins relievers. Because of the uncertainty surrounding Nathan, Capps, who would be a top-12 closer without the All-Star competition, can be drafted in the low to mid-20s at his position.
- Drew Storen, Nationals: He saved five games, won four and struck out 52 in 55 1/3 innings as a rookie last season. The No. 10 overall pick of the 2009 draft has been groomed to be Washington's closer, and he was very good in the minor leagues (2-1, 1.68 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 64 Ks in 54 innings). Not bad for someone you can select in the later rounds as your No. 2 reliever -- or as your No. 1 if you prefer to punt saves until late.
Potential busts
- Neftali Feliz, Rangers: As long as the Rangers don't try to make him a starter, he's a stud. Concerns over the possibility placed Feliz on our list of the top 10 potential draft-day busts.
- Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers: Some owners will draft him as their top closer (we have Broxton ranked 14th), which is a risky move after he lost his job to Hong-Chih Kuo last season. Broxton saved 22 games in 29 chances and had a 4.04 ERA and 1.48 WHIP last season. He's an excellent source of strikeouts (73 in 62 1/3 innings last season and 114 in 76 innings in his phenomenal 2009). Broxton should open the season as the Dodgers' closer, but if he falters, remember that Kuo was excellent in 2010 (12-for-13 saves, 1.20 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 73 Ks in 60 innings).
- Jose Valverde, Tigers: He will be drafted as a low-end No. 1 closer (we have him ranked 12th), but he's slightly risky after a 2010 in which he was bothered late by an elbow injury and had only eight saves after July 1. Valverde saved a combined 91 games in 2007 and '08, but that number has been reduced by 40 (51 saves) the last two seasons.
Sleepers
- Brandon League, Mariners: David Aardsma could miss at least all of April following hip surgery, which should give the ninth-inning role to League. The latter was 9-7 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 56 Ks in 79 innings last season. The season before, he struck out a career-high 76 batters. He won't be great, but you should be able to get him in the final rounds.
- Chris Sale, White Sox: The No. 13 overall pick of the 2010 draft pitched only 10 innings in the minor leagues, then had an impressive 23 1/3-inning stretch with the White Sox (2-1, 1.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 32 Ks). The Sox recently announced Sale would open the season in the bullpen after it was rumored he would be a starter, and he is in the running for the closer's job. If he wins it, look out.
Key stats
- 121: Kevin Gregg has totaled that many saves the last four seasons, and he was signed by Baltimore to a two-year, $10 million contract in the offseason. Gregg saved 37 games last season and struck out 58 in 59 innings. He won't help you much in the ERA (3.51 in 2010, 4.03 career) and WHIP (1.39, 1.33) departments, but he's another example of why waiting until late to select a closer could be the best move.
- 81: Matt Thornton had that lofty strikeout total in 60 2/3 innings as the White Sox's setup man last season. If Thornton is the choice instead of Sale to be the closer, and he seems to be the early leader, he could post huge numbers for a reliever you should be able to draft after more than 20 closers are off the board. Thornton was 5-4 with a 2.67 ERA in 2010, but he's never been a closer in his seven-year career.
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