By Kevin Kleps, Fantasy Correspondent
There are plenty of reasons to dislike Alex Rodriguez – where do we start? Steroids? The alleged liaisons while married? The contract? Scott Boras? – but it was never difficult to put those feelings aside on draft day.
When you called or clicked the name of the $275 million Yankee, you always knew what you were getting.
For the first time since 1996, when he was a 20-going-on-21-year-old shortstop in Seattle, that is no longer the case.
A-Rod and his admitted steroid use was the story of the offseason. Fast-forward to the middle of March, and his right hip, which has torn cartilage that required surgery on March 9, is the topic as fake general managers everywhere convene to play for cash, bragging rights and, sadly in some leagues, trophies that change hands from year to year. (Where’s Bill Maher when you need him? New rule: If you order a trophy or plaque for your league, you make all of us look bad.)
The surgery is expected to sideline Rodriguez for a maximum of nine weeks, and the Yankees have said they hope to have him back in May.
All of this leaves us to decide when is too early to take a chance on Rodriguez, and wonder how much we would be risking if we do.
If mock drafts are an accurate indicator, you can plan on Rodriguez going in the middle of the third round in 12-team leagues. Are you willing to risk a top-30 pick on a player who has been fantasy’s most consistent performer the last 11 years? If so, there are several factors you need to consider, and the most discussed hip in the Big Apple is only one.
- Age: A-Rod will turn 34 this summer and he’s coming off a season in which he missed 24 games (his most since 1999). From 2001-07, he missed a total of 20 games and played all 162 games three times. This season is the second in as many years in which Rodriguez will sit for a sizable number of games, and it’s fair to question whether he is breaking down.
- Power drop: Rodriguez has tallied at least 35 homers and 103 RBI every season since 1997. Those statistics are impossible to argue. Then there is this number: 35, as in his HR total in both 2006 and 2008, his lowest figures since 1997. Rodriguez’s 103 RBI last season were his fewest since 1997, as were his 104 runs scored.
- The hip: If everything goes as planned, Rodriguez returns by mid-May at the latest, resumes mashing and makes us wonder why we doubted him in the first place. Not to be a pessimist, but consider the following: The Yankees play 23 games in April, and have 20 games in the first three weeks of May. If Rodriguez returns in late May, you won’t have him in your lineup for about 45 games, or seven weeks of the fantasy season.
- There’s also this: Rodriguez opted for the “minor” hip surgery, and needs another procedure done after the season. If his condition worsens and he has to have a second surgery during the season, his 2009 will be as unproductive as the offseason that preceded it.
- The solution: As difficult as it might be, give yourself a number at which you will select A-Rod, and don’t go below it. I would start at 37 – the beginning of the fourth round in a 12-team league – and keep myself from taking the risk until I’ve selected three players.
You can afford to gamble on A-Rod in Round 4. That’s one of the great aspects of fantasy baseball – unlike football, it’s not difficult to select gems in the double-digit rounds, which leaves you more wiggle room for early gambles.
If you go with a fourth-round-or-bust philosophy on Rodriguez, you won’t pass on the likes of Kevin Youkilis, Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis to draft a player who at best will play two-thirds of the regular season in fantasy.
The Theory of 37: Make a few solid picks ahead of Rodriguez and draft his insurance at third base before the likes of Mark DeRosa are off the board, thus minimizing the risk of bringing baseball’s biggest sideshow into your less-complicated world.
And, please, no trophies.
