A useful statistic for fantasy baseball is BABIP, which is batting average on balls in play.For pitchers (a measure of the hitters they face), it's a good measure of luck. So pitchers with high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances adjust to the mean (around .300 to .310). For pitchers, it's a measurement of the number of runs he has prevented from scoring that a replacement-level pitcher would have allowed.
Below are the top 50 from each end of the spectrum from 2008, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus. One interesting case is CC Sabathia, who was 6-8 with a 3.83 ERA with Cleveland, then 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA with Milwaukee. And, as you might expect, his BABIP was much better with the Brewers (.291) than with the Indians (.317), so it's reasonable to assume that Sabathia was a little unlucky in Cleveland, and lucky in Milwaukee. And that his real ability is somewhere in the middle.
Top 50 pitchers from 2008 with more than 100 innings pitched, in BABIP, meaning they had good luck or were hit exceptionally softly in 2008, or some combination of both:
- Justin Duchscherer, A's: .238
- Armando Galarraga, Tigers: .239
- Dave Bush, Brewers: .239
- Tim Wakefield, Red Sox: .242
- Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays: .248
- Chris Young, Padres: .259
- Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles: .261
- Gavin Floyd, White Sox: .261
- Scott Olsen, Marlins: .262
- Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox: .262
- Gregory Smith, A's: .263
- Cole Hamels, Phillies: .263
- Tim Hudson, Braves: .268
- Joe Saunders, Angels: .269
- Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals: .270
- Scott Kazmir, Rays: .271
- Carlos Zambrano, Cubs: .273
- Ted Lilly, Cubs: .274
- John Lannan, Nationals: .275
- Matt Garza, Rays: .276
- John Maine, Mets: .276
- Ricky Nolasco, Marlins: .278
- Johan Santana, Mets: .278
- Adam Wainwright, Cardinals: .279
- Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays: .280
- Oliver Perez, Mets: .280
- Ryan Rowland-Smith, Mariners: .280
- Paul Byrd, Indians: .281
- Ryan Dempster, Reds: .283
- Jake Peavy, Padres: .284
- Ben Sheets, Brewers: .285
- Derek Lowe, Dodgers: .286
- Zach Miner, Tigers: .286
- Roy Halladay, Blue Jays: .287
- Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers: .287
- Scott Baker, Twins: .287
- Seth McClung, Brewers: .290
- Scott Feldman, Rangers: .290
- James Shields, Rays: .290
- C.C. Sabathia, Brewers: .291
- Greg Maddux, Padres: .291
- Jamie Moyer, Phillies: .291
- Jason Marquis, White Sox: .292
- John Lackey, Angels: .292
- Chris Sampson, Astros: .293
- Roy Oswalt, Astros: .293
- Ervin Santana, Angels: .293
- Kevin Slowey, Twins: .293
- Micah Owings, Diamondbacks: .294
- Jorge Campillo, Braves: .294
The worst 50 pitchers from 2008 with more than 100 innings pitched, in BABIP, meaning they had bad luck or were hit exceptionally hard in 2008, or some combination of both:
- Ian Snell, Pirates: .360
- Kevin Millwood, Rangers: .359
- Andrew Miller, Marlins: .354
- Livan Hernandez, Twins: .354
- Carlos Silva, Mariners: .348
- Nate Robertson, Tigers: .343
- Andy Pettitte, Yankees: .341
- Garrett Olson, Orioles: .341
- Kevin Correia, Giants: .337
- Manny Parra, Brewers: .335
- Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves: .332
- Doug Davis, Diamondbacks: .332
- Pedro Martinez, Mets: .331
- Adam Eaton, Philles: .330
- Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies: .330
- Brian Burres, Orioles: .328
- Brandon Backe, Astros: .328
- Boof Bonser, Twins: .328
- Joba Chamberlain, Yankees: .328
- Mike Mussina, Yankees: .327
- Jonathan Sanchez, Giants: .327
- Kenny Rogers, Tigers: .327
- Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers: .327
- Bronson Arroyo, Reds: .324
- Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays: .324
- Zach Duke, Pirates: .324
- Odalis Perez, Nationals: .324
- Randy Wolf, Padres: .321
- A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays: .321
- Chad Billingsley, Dodgers: .320
- Jon Garland, Angels: .320
- Javier Vazquez, White Sox: .320
- Josh Beckett, Red Sox: .320
- Darrell Rasner, Yankees: .319
- Felix Hernandez, Mariners: .319
- Joel Pineiro, Cardinals: .319
- Miguel Batista, Mariners: .318
- Aaron Harang, Reds: .318
- CC Sabathia, Indians: .317
- Dana Eveland, A's: .316
- Wandy Rodriguez, Astros: .316
- Mark Buehrle, White Sox: .315
- Brian Bannister, Royals: .315
- Aaron Cook, Rockies: .313
- Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks: .313
- Kyle Kendrick, Phillies: .312
- Tim Lincecum, Giants: .312
- Jeff Francis, Rockies: .312
- Zack Greinke, Royals: .312
- Kyle Davies, Royals: .311

