2009 Fantasy Baseball Overrated Players

Beltran's average draft value on CBS Sports' site is 22nd. That's late in the second round in a 12-team league. Here's what you get for that - a career .281 hitter whose power numbers have gone from 41 homers in 2006 to 33 in 2007 to 28 in 2008. Sure, he'll steal 20 bases as well, but Beltran's days as a five-tool fantasy stud are likely over. And that means you should let somebody else pick him in the second round.

Figgins qualifies at a bunch of positions, which makes him somewhat valuable. But not as valuable as many think. Sure, he'll hit for a decent average, in the .280 range. But he has no power at all (four total homers the last two seasons) and has declined in stolen bases in each of the past four seasons (62 to 52 to 41 to 34). And steals are an overrated fantasy stat anyway. He's a backup, late-round guy, at best.

You'll find Tejada on lists of sleepers and lists of overrated players. I go with the latter. Why? It's obvious he's in a decline. His home run totals in the past five years: 34, 26, 24, 18, 13. RBIs the past three years? 100 to 81 to 66, in 158 games last season. He'll turn 35 this year (why last year, he was just 32...remember?). He's a marginal fantasy starter, with an average fantasy draft spot of 149th overall by CBS Sports - and it probably should be a bit lower.

Atkins took a step back last year statistically, with a lower average (.301 to .286) and power numbers (25 to 21 homers). And one stat really jumps out from 2007 to 2008 - he walked 40 fewer times. And while his ability still translates as one of the top fantasy third basemen, he's not hitting behind Matt Holliday anymore. That means there are better options out there.

This is a pick simply because Lee was so great last year. Because there's very little chance that he will go 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA again this year. He was a No. 5 starter last year, a guy who went undrafted, and now will have to go against other teams' aces. That will hurt his numbers. Lee should win 15 games, have an ERA in the threes and strike out 160 or so in 200 innings. Draft him accordingly.

He'll be Chicago's opening day starter again, but maybe he didn't deserve the honor this season. He's only 28, but his strikeouts are declining every season, from 210 in 2006 all the way to 130 in 2008. He once struck out 8.83 per nine innings, and that slipped to 6.2 last year. And he wasn't good in the second half. After starting 7-1, he finished 14-6. His average draft value by CBS is 68th. That's too high.

I know, I know. There might be nobody I'd want up at the plate in a clutch situation. But assuming you can play any player at DH, Ortiz is not worth his average draft value of the third or fourth round. It's hard to draft a guy that high who is aging (33 this year) and hit less than half as many homers last season (23) as he did in 2006 (54). He doesn't hit for a high average anymore (.264 last season) and has had some injury issues. Still the best DH, but don't spend a third-rounder on him anymore.

This is simply because of the change of scenery. He went from perhaps the best hitting park in the majors (Coors Field) to the worst (McAfee Stadium). Compound that with the fact that Holliday will be going around the American League for the first time, and that he's on a team without a lot of offensive weapons, and owners should expect a drop from his numbers. He'll still hit .300, but probably with 25 homers and 85-90 RBI. Good, but not worth a second-round pick.

Two guys traded for each other are next to each other. Street went to Colorado in the Holliday deal, and will likely be the closer for the Rockies. But he's not looking good in spring training so far, and many a pitcher has been spooked by Coors Field before. And it's not like Street was dominant last year in Oakland - his walks per nine innings was a career-worst 3.47 in 2008. He was also 18 of 25 in save situations.

Vladimir Guerrero was a first-round pick, no doubt, for many seasons. But time catches us all, and it's got a strong hold on Guerrero. He drove in less than 100 runs for the first time in five years in 2008, and this was on an Angels team that scored a lot. On-base percentage, slugging, batting average - all well off his career averages. He also just aged a year, revealing that he was mislabled as a year younger than he was back as a Dominican teen. So now he's 34, not 33. And he doesn't run well at all anymore because of a bum knee. He's still worth a pick, but not until the fifth round at the earliest. His average draft value on CBS is 44. Wait until at least 50.