If you have already drafted Joe Nathan, you're scrambling for a waiver-wire replacement. If your draft is this weekend or next, you'll be checking the Web sites for news of a fill-in for a closer who has averaged a major-league best 41.5 saves the last six seasons.
The Twins haven't said whom their top reliever will be after it was announced Nathan would undergo Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Only one in-house candidate has been a closer before, and even starter Francisco Liriano's name has been mentioned as a possibility.
The latter will only happen if the Twins - who are now spending money at a level at which most of the American League Central Division is not accustomed - are desperate. I would expect Minnesota to trade for a reliever before it moved the 26-year-old Liriano into the bullpen full-time.
Barring a trade, let's look at the four most likely candidates to replace Nathan in 2010:
- Jon Rauch, RHP, age 31: With a combined 18 saves in 24 chances with the Nationals and Diamondbacks in 2008, he seems the most probable selection. With a career average of 7.4 strikeouts per 9 innings and a 2009 tally of 49 K's in 70 innings, he's not exactly lights-out. But he did win seven games last season and has a proven track record in the bullpen. Until the Twins make it official, Rauch should be ranked 30th among all closers. If he does get the call, he's a decent No. 2 closer option in 10- and 12-team mixed leagues.
- Matt Guerrier, RHP, 31: With 47 strikeouts in 76 1/3 innings last season, he seems better served for a setup role. Guerrier was very effective in 2009 (5-1, 2.36 ERA), but his career norm of 6 K's per 9 innings seems to signify he's where he belongs in the bullpen pecking order.
- Jose Mijares, LHP, 25: The two-year veteran was great against left-handed batters last season, holding them to a .155 batting average, but so-so against righties (.283). He is a quality source of K's (55 in 61 2/3 innings in 2009), but likely will remain a mid- to late-inning specialist for the time being.
- Pat Neshek, RHP, 29: He's an intriguing option (Neshek posted seven wins with a 2.94 ERA and 74 K's in 70 1/3 innings in 2007), but he missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery and seems to be the long shot on this list.
Coming Thursday: We'll look at Kerry Wood's back injury and examine Chris Perez's chances of being the Indians' full-time closer.