A sure sign you're in a rotisserie, not points-based, baseball league: B.J. Upton is a coveted commodity.
He's a 25-year-old with five-tool potential. He was very good in 2007, batting .300, hitting 24 home runs, driving in 82 runs and stealing 22 bases.
Since then, owners have been tripping over each other in a mad dash to draft the Rays outfielder. Last season, Upton was viewed as a top-10 outfielder and top-40 overall draft pick by many sites, despite a 2008 that was more forgettable than Steve Phillips' tenure on &"Sunday Night Baseball."
This year, Upton is ranked as a top-12 outfielder and top-50 overall pick by some experts, who must not have looked at the outfielder's statistics the last two seasons. In that span, Upton has batted .257 with 20 homers, 122 RBI, 164 runs and 86 steals in 289 games.
Why the fascination? Speed -- aka the No. 1 killer of fantasy teams in rotisserie formats.
Let us explain with some rotisserie baseball dos and don'ts:
DON'T Overrate One Category
- Upton is a high draft pick strictly because of his stolen-base totals. Same goes for Mariners second/third baseman Chone Figgins, who is viewed by most as a top-50 overall selection after averaging 46 steals the last five seasons. The problem? Figgins doesn't hit home runs or drive in many runs, and his career batting average of .291 isn't lofty enough to warrant his ranking.
- Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury is another example of a player who is highly coveted because of the fact he steals a lot of bases. Ellsbury has averaged 60 steals the last two seasons, and his .301 average helps you in another category. But Ellsbury doesn't score a ton of runs for a leadoff batter (an average of 96 the last two seasons), and he's likely to finish in single digits in homers and drive in 60 runs or fewer.
- Another common mistake: Drafting closers too high. The average 2009 innings pitched for this year's three best relievers -- Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Broxton and Jonathan Papelbon -- was fewer than 70, or less than one-third of the total for a stud starter. Getting a few saves a week is never a bad thing, but it's not enough of a luxury to select a closer over a stud starter who will help you much more in wins and strikeouts.
DO Value Well-Rounded Players
- Shin-So Choo isn't an All-Star or even a name an average fan would recognize. The Indians outfielder is, however, a player who will hit for power (34 homers in 900 at-bats the last two years), drive in runs (150 RBI in that span), score runs (87 last season), steal bases (20 in 2009) and hit for average (.300). B.J. Upton, he is not.
- Matt Holliday, unlike Choo, is a big name. He's also another confusing case, as he's often ranked below Carl Crawford in the outfield. You likely already know the reason: Crawford steals a lot of bases. Never mind that Holliday has the edge over the Rays outfielder in home runs (24 to 15 last season), RBI (109-68) and batting average (.313-.305), and runs is almost a wash (Crawford had a 99-96 edge in 2009). Holliday stole 14 bases to Crawford's 60 last season. Apparently, that is all it takes for Crawford to be incorrectly viewed as a better selection.
DO Study Your Categories
- Is WHIP, OPS and/or on-base percentage a category in your league? If so, do your homework, since those numbers often aren't among the first batch of stats you'll read when you look up a player's bio online. The most common rotisserie categories for hitters are runs, home runs, RBI, batting average and steals.
DO Remember One Category Won't Ruin You
- The stolen-base and save specialists tend to go off the board in bunches. If that's the case, don't panic. An outfield of Manny Ramirez (on average, a third-round pick), Carlos Lee (sixth round) and Carlos Quentin (eighth) won't help you at all in steals, but you will be stacked in home runs and RBI. Lee has hit better than .300 with averages of 31 homers and 109 RBI the last four seasons, and the underrated Quentin batted .288 with 36 home runs and 100 RBI in 2008.
DON'T Follow the Crowd
- If Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street, Heath Bell and Brian Fuentes -- who are among the next tier of closers after the top three -- are selected in succession, go in another direction. Would you rather have the Angels' Fuentes -- who had a 3.93 ERA and five losses last season -- or Carlos Lee? Hint: It's not Fuentes.
DO Know the Recent History
- Mets third baseman David Wright's 2009 totals in runs scored (88), homers (10) and RBI (72) might cause you to look elsewhere. What you might not realize is before Wright's injury-riddled 2009, he posted the following averages from 2005 to 2008: .311, 106 runs, 29 homers, 112 RBI and 22 steals. He's a second-round pick who should produce like a first-rounder.
- A pair of outfielders -- the Indians' Grady Sizemore and the Braves' Nate McLouth -- batted .248 and .256, respectively, last season. Owners who only look up last season's numbers will neglect Sizemore's 2007-08 averages of 29 homers, 84 RBI, 110 runs and 36 steals. McLouth also could be undervalued because of a poor 2009. The latter had 26 home runs, 94 RBI, 23 steals and 113 runs in 2008.