Jose Bautista is a career .238 hitter.
Before 2010, the most home runs had had hit in a season was 16 (2006). His career high for RBI was 63, set in 2007.
The only real sign of major-league production by the 29-year-old Blue Jay was a 706 at-bat stretch in 2008 and '09, in which he tallied 28 homers, 99 runs scored and 94 RBI. In typical Bautista fashion, he also batted .237 with 176 strikeouts in that span.
Through June 10 this season, Bautista has 18 homers, 45 RBI, 41 runs and a .948 OPS in 209 at-bats. He's also batting .239 -- but we can't be too picky with our waiver-wire finds.
Bautista's 2010 mght remind some of us of Carlos Quentin in 2008. That year, Quentin seemed to come out of nowhere (more on that later) to bat .288 with 96 runs, 36 homers, 100 RBI, seven steals and a .965 OPS.
Quentin might have helped you win a league championship that season. Bautista, who is eligible at both third base and the outfield, could be doing the same this year.
How did you get so fortunate? Perfect timing? Blind luck? Baseball Cube research?
For every Quentin and Bautista, there is a Will Venable or a Jim Johnson (you don't remember the Orioles' closer for a week?) -- players who seem like good ideas at the time, but quickly fade back into fantasy oblivion.
How do you best decide if the player you're considering on the waiver wire is boom or bust?
Here are five tips:
1. Know Your Team
It sounds simple, and it is, but it's amazing how many times owners don't. Before you pick up a player, ask yourself two questions:
- Where do you need help?: Is your first-base production lagging well behind the rest of the league? Is your batting average in a category league preventing you from being a serious contender? Get answers before you decide on a free agent.
- Where are the best free agents?: If there are a few strong outfielders on the wire, but outfield is your strongest position, can you play one of your starters at a different position? It's amazing how much of a difference a position switch can make if you bring in the right player(s).
2. Know the Cost
- If you're in a league in which transactions cost a buck, how many times are you willing to go to the proverbial well before you find the right fit?
- Can you afford to wait a week to pick up a certain player (the ones who won't fill an immediate need), or is said player performing so well you're certain another owner will acquire him in the next few days?
- If you pick up a batter, whom are you going to drop? Don't let go of a player before considering each scenario. Don't be the guy who drops Shane Victorino during a poor April (that actually happened in a 14-team league I'm in -- all because an owner had five good outfielders and needed help somewhere else) or Gavin Floyd in 2009 (same league -- did I mention I love when owners do this? Floyd was 3-5 with a 6.11 ERA through May of 2009, then went 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings the next two months).
3. Know the Numbers, Not the Names
This is where Bautista and Quentin come in. Same for Carlos Silva, who is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA in his first 11 starts of 2010 with the Cubs. Silva was a combined 5-18 in 2008 and '09.
After a while, you just have to believe. Carlos Silva might never be good again. Same for Bautista. But it doesn't mean that a huge April means nothing.
Career years happen for no apparent reason. Luck plays a huge role, allowing you to look smart on Carlos Quentin, even if all you did was say, "What the heck. I need a power hitter."
4. Know the History
- Is a player on a steep career decline? His year-by-year stats should tell you if there is a really good reason he's available in your league.
- Was a player dropped too soon? Owners give up on players after a bad month, but a little research might tell you Player A has a history of poor starts or a tendency to not start raking until the summer months. If that's the case, take advantage of someone else's mistake and acquire the hitter or pitcher who was dropped.
- The Baseball Cube is your friend. (Make sure to include the "the" when searching for it). The website is a great resource for a player's minor-league production. Bautista, for instance, had 52 homers, 222 RBI, 236 runs scored and an .842 OPS in 1,485 at-bats down on the farm. Quentin was a first-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2003 who was very good in the minors (.314, 56 homers, 237 RBI, 307 runs, .956 OPS in 1,377 at-bats) before getting off to an unimpressive start in the big leagues. And maybe you've heard of Braves rookie Jason Heyward, who wasn't drafted in some leagues in 2010, but had a torrid spring and some eye-popping minor-league numbers.
- Is a player coming off a bad season that scared owners away? Diamondbacks second baseman Kelly Johnson was terrible with the Braves in 2009 (.224, eight homers, 29 RBI), but was productive in 2007 and '08 (averages of .282, 14 homers, 69 RBI and 10 steals). In his first 210 at-bats this season, he batted .279 with 13 homers, 32 RBI and five steals (2007 and '08, only with more power).
5. Know the Circumstances
Is the player's job secure or is he a cold streak away from getting benched?
The latter would have seemed to apply to Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner, until you remembered that Johnny Damon signed with Detroit and Melky Cabrera was acquired by Atlanta prior to 2010.
With Nick Swisher and Marcus Thames as the next-best corner outfielders on the Yankees' roster, Gardner -- who wasn't drafted in some leagues -- has flourished (at least until spraining his thumb on June 8). In his first 56 games, he's batting .314 with three homers, 19 RBI, 43 runs and 21 steals.
You would have been fortunate to get Gardner on the waiver wire. Bautista, too.
You also could have been pretty darn smart. If the other owners call you lucky, give them the numbers behind your waiver claim.
That way, even if it was blind luck, you can convince them it was hard work.