By Kevin Kleps, Fantasy Correspondent
Indians pitcher Cliff Lee hammered home an important lesson in his victory on April 16, and it had nothing to do with the Yankees’ opening of a $1.5 billion stadium, with a $161 million starting pitcher (CC Sabathia) facing a team with a payroll of $82 million.
It’s early.
Two starts — attention: Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum owners — do not a season make. Even if those starts include the following stats, as Lee's nighmarish first week did: 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP and an opponents' batting average of .423.
There are statistical trends that should be encouraging or disturbing to a fantasy owner, and a couple of bad performances by a pitcher in a cold-weather month don’t fit the latter.
Let’s look at some of the early numbers that have caught our attention, all the while trying to make sense of the madness of a time in which it’s been better to own Adam Lind than Mark Teixeira, another Yankee with a nine-figure contract. (All stats are through April 22.)
Believe...
- Florida’s Josh Johnson could be a top-15 pitcher this season. The 25-year-old missed almost all of 2007 because of Tommy John surgery, came back to win seven of eight decisions in the second half of last season and is off to a great start in 2009 (2-0, 2.91 ERA). In 288 career innings pitched, he’s 21-11 with a 3.38 ERA and has 249 strikeouts.
- Andy Pettitte again is a fantasy starter. He was awful following the All-Star break last season (4-7, 5.35 ERA), but, at 36, he’s far from washed up. Pettitte has won 61 games since 2005.
- Nelson Cruz could be the breakout batting star in 2009. The 28-year-old Rangers outfielder has 28 homers and 97 RBI in 606 career at-bats. And if you think his fast start is a fluke, consider these minor-league numbers: a .298 batting average, 149 homers and 509 RBI in 2,627 at-bats. In Triple-A last season, Cruz batted .342 with 37 homers and 99 RBI. I'd say he's major-league ready.
- Ryan Ludwick’s 2008 was the real deal. The Cardinals outfielder is batting .378 with five homers and 16 RBI. In 873 at-bats since 2007, Ludwick has 54 homers and 174 RBI.
- Mike Lowell is serviceable, which is much more than you could have said about the Red Sox’s third baseman last season. Lowell leads Boston in RBI, and even if you factor in his 2008 struggles, he has driven in 201 runs in 1,043 at-bats since 2007. He’s worth starting in deeper leagues.
Don’t believe...
- Emilio Bonifacio is not the answer to your third base problems. Yes, his speed is nice, but the 24-year-old Marlin has one homer in 253 career at-bats — a lack of power you probably can’t afford at the hot corner.
- David Ortiz is not, well, David Ortiz. The Red Sox’s designated hitter hasn’t done much of said designation lately. Ortiz’s batting averages in his last three months: .196 this April, .244 last September and .278 last August. He’s difficult to bench, but he’s been bothered by a wrist injury and he’s from the masher we came to appreciate from 2003-07.
- Kevin Millwood, in his free-agent walk year, will not be as productive as he was in his Indians walk year of 2005. The Rangers pitcher has been impressive thus far, but don’t forget his 2008 (9-10, 5.07 ERA) and 2007 (10-14, 5.16) campaigns.
- The Cardinals don't have any idea whom their closer will be in two months. Jason Motte lost the job with one blown save, Dennys Reyes and Kyle McLellan each have a save, and Ryan Franklin has closed two games since Monday. If I had to choose one for the long term, I'd go with Chris Perez, St. Louis' closer late last season, who was recently recalled from Class AAA this week.
Pick three
Three free agents who should be useful in deeper leagues (quick rule of thumb: They have to be owned in fewer than half of the leagues on ESPN.com):
- Kyle Davies, SP, Royals: In 11 starts since last September, he’s 5-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 44 1/3 innings.
- Chris Duncan, OF, Cardinals: He has 10 RBI and a .750 slugging percentage this season, he has 52 homers and 153 RBI in 923 career at-bats, and it doesn’t hurt that he follows Albert Pujols and Ludwick in the batting order.
- Randy Winn, OF, Giants: He’s not going to wow you in any category, but he has seven consecutive seasons of reaching double figures in both home runs and steals. This nearly anonymous 34-year-old's season averages since 2002: a .294 batting average with 85 runs scored, 13 homers, 68 RBI and 20 stolen bases.
