The Rangers are messing with a very good thing.
Neftali Feliz, the 22-year-old reigning American League Rookie of the Year, will go to spring training as a starter, not a closer.
Feliz was 40-for-43 in save situations in 2010. He posted an outstanding WHIP of 0.88, struck out 71 batters in 69 1/3 innings and had a 2.73 ERA.
If he remains the closer, he's among the top four at his position.
If he's a starter, even Tim McCarver doesn't know how he'll fare -- though he'll tell you he does.
Feliz wants to close. His manager, Ron Washington, reportedly wants him to as well.
Management seems to have other ideas, which is understandable in the sense that Feliz has more pitches than most closers, he's young enough to make the move and it's worked for Texas before (see Wilson, C.J.).
The counter to all that: Wilson wasn't a lights-out closer. When he saved 24 games in 2008, he did so with a 6.02 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.
Feliz has the look of someone who could save 400 games in the next 10 years.
Is a closer as important as an ace? Of course not.
But what if it doesn't work? How long would Feliz have to struggle before heading back to the bullpen, and would that invite arm issues?
At the risk of angering Nolan Ryan (I would never want to play the role of Robin Ventura), here's a vote for Feliz the closer.
And here are our top 10 potential draft-day busts, a list Feliz makes only because we're worried about him beginning the season as a starter.
1. Jose Bautista, OF, Blue Jays: As we've written before, he's a draft-day dilemma after his out-of-nowhere 2010. Bautista's previous career highs prior to 2010 were 16 homers, 63 RBI and 75 runs. Last season, he had 54 homers, 124 RBI and 109 runs. Still, he's a .244 career batter whom you will be selecting among the top six to eight outfielders, likely late in the second round. Considering Bautista's pre-2010 track record, that has to make you nervous.
2. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers: As you can tell by the top 100 overall, I like him quite a bit. But he still scares me, even after a monstrous 2010, and even though he will be hitting in the middle of Texas' loaded lineup. In 2009, Beltre batted .265 with eight homers, 44 RBI, 54 runs and a .683 OPS in 449 at-bats with the Mariners. The year before, he hit 25 homers, but batted only .266 with 77 RBI and a .784 OPS. Was Safeco Field, a notorious pitchers' park, to blame? If you draft Beltre in the fourth round, you better hope that's the case.
3. Neftali Feliz, RP/SP, Rangers: He was mostly a starter in the minor leagues, and with mixed results. In 79 games (53 starts), Feliz was 16-16 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, though he did strike out 10.6 batters per nine innings.
4. Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks: He hit .257 in 2010, but was very good in the other four key categories -- 94 runs, 27 homers, 91 RBI and 28 steals. Young had 32 homers and 27 steals in 2007, and 22 homers and 85 RBI in 2008. But in 2008 and '09, he hit .248 and .212, respectively, with a combined 25 steals. His OPS those years was .758 and .711. He strikes out once per 3.8 at-bats and he's a career .241 hitter. As a top-60 overall selection, he's a high-risk, high-reward proposition.
5. Brian Roberts, 2B, Orioles: He's 33 and has a bad back, which limited him to 230 at-bats in 2010. We tend to think of him as a former stud, but in reality, he's a .283 career hitter with career highs of 18 homers and 79 RBI. He stole 50 bases in 2007, but if you look at Roberts' last eight seasons, 23 to 30 seems to be the number of steals we should expect if he plays a full season. Since he's a sixth-round pick in a 12-team league, he's not as risky as the four players above him.
6. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: He has cracked the top 60 overall after a 2010 in which he hit 29 homers with 83 RBI, 112 runs and 11 steals. Weeks, however, is a .253 career hitter who, prior to last season, hadn't produced more than 16 homers or 46 RBI in his first five years. His steals were also down from an average of 21 from 2006 to '08, despite the fact that Weeks' 651 at-bats in 2010 were 176 more than his previous career high.
7. Corey Hart, OF, Brewers: He became a must-start again in 2010 (.283, 31 homers, 102 RBI, 91 runs, .865 OPS). Still, we have concerns after he has averaged nine steals the last two seasons, down from 23 in 2007 and '08. In 2009, Hart was brutal (.260, 12 homers, 48 RBI, .753 OPS), and his previous career bests prior to 2010 were 24 homers, 91 RBI and 86 runs. Another risky sixth-round pick.
8. Jayson Werth, OF, Nationals: Yes, I ranked him among the top eight outfielders and top 27 overall. Yes, he has averaged 32 homers, 92 RBI and 17 steals the last two seasons. But I'm not totally sold on Werth, a career .272 hitter, thanks in part to his huge new contract, the much weaker lineup in which he will be hitting and the fact he's on his fourth team since 2003.
9. Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: I know, he's a legend, he's clutch, he is with Minka Kelly -- what's not to love? Yet, Jeter's .270 average in 2010 was 44 points below his career norm, his 10 homers were his lowest since 2003 and his OPS of .710 was his worst since he had 48 at-bats as a rookie in 1995. His steals also dropped from 30 in 2009 to 18 last season. Will he bounce back? Probably. But if he doesn't hit for average and steal 25-plus bases, he doesn't belong among the top four shortstops and top 45 overall. By the way, he'll be 37 on June 26.
10. Kendry Morales, 1B, Angels: He suffered a broken leg during a 2010 on-field celebration, ending his season after 193 at-bats. He was great the season before (.306, 34 homers, 108 RBI, .924 OPS). But if you draft him as your top first baseman, a position that's loaded, you need to be right. Prior to his 2009 breakout, Morales hadn't done much in the majors, batting .249 with 12 homers and 45 RBI in 377 at-bats spanning three seasons.
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