Red Sox in 3-1 hole: Why this year is different

The Boston Red Sox are down 3-1 in the American League Championship Series. Nothing new there - Boston was in this position in both of their title runs, in 2004 and 2007.

But this doesn't feel like the Red Sox's year. Why:

1. Home field: It's hard to see the Rays losing two in a row at home. That only happened since mid-April (Sept. 2-3, to the Yankees). They're also taking off the tarps on some of the horrible seats in their quirky little dome, making it even louder.
2. Josh Beckett in Game 6: If he pitches the same way he has in his last two starts, it could be batting practice. Paul Byrd was hit around badly in Game 4 relief, so he doesn't appear to be a decent option.
3. No Mike Lowell: Boston's third baseman, the World Series MVP last season, is done for the year and has scheduled hip surgery for next week.
4. Big slump for Big Papi: The left wrist of Boston's designated hitter isn't 100 percent, and that's sapped him of some power.
5. No slumps for Rays: With Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford all on hot streaks, there's nobody to pitch around in the Tampa Bay lineup. Longoria already has the record for postseason home runs for a rookie, and Crawford, returning from injury, went 5 for 5 on Tuesday. "They're all locked in," Ortiz told MLB.com. "I've been in a lot of playoffs, and I've never seen this. You might have three, four guys really hitting well, but that entire team over there is raking.

It all adds up to what looks like Tampa Bay's first World Series, as crazy as that would have sounded back in April. (The area is also hosting the Super Bowl next February.) We all wish we could have gone back and put $100 on the Rays in Las Vegas. Odds were running at about 100-1 for a championship. It's at roughly 2-1 today.

More in Playoff Central.