Only one sure pick for Hall

The 2009 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot is out, and it's not all that large, with just 23 players.

But like the ballot in presidential elections, there are many on there who have no chance of being elected. The equivalent of the Socialist Workers Party and the Prohibition Party this year are Dan Plesac, Ron Gant, Jay Bell and Greg Vaughn. Those guys might have had a couple of decent years, but not enough to even stay on the ballot in the future.

Let's handicap this ballot, based on percentage of chance of making it:

• 99 percent: Rickey Henderson - A no-brainer that the best leadoff hitter of the modern era is in Cooperstown, ego or not.
• 75 percent: Jim Rice - This is his last shot, and his best one. He picked a very good year to be on the ballot for the 15th time.
• 51 percent: Andre Dawson - A great hitter, great athlete, one of the best of his generation. If it wasn't for that awful Montreal turf that killed his knees, he'd be here already. His support is growing.
• 30 percent: Jack Morris - One of the best pitchers of the 1980s. Stats aren't great, but he was a winner.
• 25 percent: Tim Raines - A poor-man's Henderson, so he won't go in with Henderson.
• 15 percent: Bert Blyleven - 287 wins, a 3.31 ERA. He deserves a little more of a run, but unlike Morris, he didn't play on a lot of winners.
• 8 percent: Lee Smith - Once the all-time saves leader.
• 5 percent: Tommy John - He's more renowned for the surgery than his career. This is his last chance. He won 288 games.
• 1 percent: Mark McGwire - Voters aren't ready to forget that Capitol Hill testimony.
• 0 percent: Alan Trammell, Dave Parker, Dale Murphy, Don Mattingly, David Cone, Matt Williams, Harold Baines, Mo Vaughn, Mark Grace, Greg Vaughn, Jesse Orosco, Dan Plesac, Ron Gant, Jay Bell.

Results of the voting by the baseball writers will be announced Jan. 12.