Arbitration offers are like a poker game

Teams went through the formality of offering arbitration to their players this week, but there is a calculated risk.

Under baseball's free agent rules, when players are offered arbitration, teams are eligible for receiving draft picks in return based on if the player is a Type A or Type B free agent or not. If a player accepts arbitration, it's basically a one-year contract, and negotiations begin on the dollar amount, with an arbitrator brought in if needed.

If arbitration is not offered, then the players are full-fledged free agents, and teams get nothing in return for their player.

There's a strategy involved, not unlike a poker game to see who blinks first. Sometimes the teams have the better hand. For example, it's extremely unlikely that CC Sabathia would accept arbitration from the Milwaukee Brewers, seeing as he has a multi-year contract offer on the table for around $25 million a season. So it's a no-brainer that the Brewers would offer, so they get two first-round draft picks in return.

There were a couple of interesting calls for teams on players who did get offers.

• Jason Varitek (Red Sox): As a Type A free agent, teams now would have to give up a first-round pick for a 36-year-old catcher coming off a poor season. He's most valuable to the Red Sox over everybody else, and if he turns down the offer, he could conceivably get squeezed out of the league. So I'd almost expect him to accept, even though he wants a multi-year deal.
• Darren Oliver (Angels): He's one of three Type A players that the Angels offered, and two of them (Mark Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez) aren't likely to return. Oliver is much more likely be back, as situational lefties are not worth first-round picks to most teams. Regardless, the Angels will really be able to stock their minor-league system this June.

And a couple who didn't:

• Adam Dunn (Diamondbacks): By not offering arbitration, the Diamondbacks essentially gave away three players for two months of a rented outfielder, as they traded for Dunn late last season. Not too smart, in my view.
• Bobby Abreu (Yankees): Shows that even the Yankees have a budget. They could have kept Abreu for another season for a figure a little north of $16 million, probably. And if not, they could have received two first-round picks if Abreu signed elsewhere. They let him go anyway.

Catch up on the limited activity so far with the Free Agent Scorecard.