Seeing a shift toward the mound

It could be the result cracking down on steroids, or it could be a natural cycle, but it appears that the balance of power in the ultimate one-on-one matchup – pitcher vs. hitter – is shifting toward the throwers.

In the first month-and-a-half of the season, runs are down for the second consecutive year. And some of the numbers are downright startling.

You could blame a colder-than-normal April for part of this. That almost always favors pitching. But this seems like more than weather. According to blogger Harold Friend at Suite 101, for April:

American League batters hit .260 in 2008 compared to .271 for all of 2007. The 2008 slugging average was .398 compared to last season's .423, and teams hit 342 home runs, which projects to about 141 home runs per team. In 2007, teams averaged about 161 home runs. In 2008, American League teams have averaged 4.50 runs per game compared to last year's 4.90.

The most dramatic turns for the worse: As of May 18, the Colorado Rockies are averaging a run fewer a game than last season: 5.28 in 2007 and 4.21 so far in 2008. It's almost as bad in Cleveland. The Indians, who are right around first place somehow because of superlative starting pitching and a weaker-than-expected division, are averaging 4.16 runs per game in 2008 after averaging 5.01 in 2007. The Indians are hitting .235 as a team.

''There have been some strong patterns so far,'' Indians manager Eric Wedge told the Akron Beacon Journal this week, in a story comparing 2008 to the ultimate year for pitchers 40 seasons ago. ''It's too early to take it that far (1968 levels), but most definitely there are signs leading that way.''

For you baseball purists out there, this could be a welcome development. Maybe the stolen base and the hit-and-run will come back into vogue after years of managers waiting for home runs. There will be an occasional shootout, of course, like the May 17, 9-8 thriller between the Rays and Cardinals, but there might be a lot more 3-2 games as well.