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Scott's Baseball Blog

Handicapping the 2010 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

Wednesday December 2, 2009

The Baseball Hall of Fame ballots are out for the 2010 class, and there are a few first-timers who should make the grade over the next few years. But I don't think any of them will make it this year in their first year of eligibility. Voters hold out that honor for only the best. But there are some guys on the ballot this season who will be in Cooperstown one day. Their chances from best to worst:

  1. Roberto Alomar: A polarizing candidate. He was maybe the best defensive second baseman ever (10 Gold Gloves), was undoubtedly one of the best players of the 1990s and won two championships. But he fizzled quickly at the end of his career, is forever linked with spitting on umpire John Hirschbeck, and then there was this bombshell from earlier this year. He bounced around a lot, so he won't have that groundswell of support from a particular city. Still he retired just in time to have a .300 lifetime average and had 2,724 lifetime hits. Prediction: In, but not this season.
  2. Barry Larkin: The former Cincinnati Reds shortstop was very good for a long time, but his career stats might lack a little. He had 2,340 hits (.295 lifetime average) and 198 homers. He won a World Series and was a nine-time Silver Slugger at a premium position. Prediction: In, but not this season.
  3. Edgar Martinez: The former Seattle Mariners star was a hitting machine, batting .312 lifetime with 309 homers and 2,247 hits.Will voters dock him for being only a designated hitter for almost his entire career? Probably. Prediction: In, but not this season.
  4. Fred McGriff: The "Crime Dog" finished just short of 500 homers (493), but was one of the great sluggers of the late 1980s and 1990s, and a steady performer. But like Alomar, he also bounced around an awful lot. Prediction: He'll hang on the ballot for several years, but will fall short.
  5. Andres Galarraga: A great story if he makes it, a cancer survivor who achieved in his career. The former Montreal Expos, Colorado Rockies and Atlanta Braves star was great offensively and defensively. But the "Big Cat" only had 2,333 hits and 399 homers. Prediction: Same as McGriff.

On ballot, but no chance: Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile.

Holdovers on the ballot with a decent chance to be elected include Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven. But with no overwhelming candidate, it's not a slam dunk that there will be any inductees this season.

Results will be announced on Jan. 6.

Pirates' Ohlendorf has unique offseason job

Monday November 30, 2009

The offseason is a time to relax for some players, to refine skills in winter ball for others.

For Pirates pitcher Ross Ohlendorf, it's a time for working as an unpaid intern for the Department of Agriculture.

The Princeton-educated Ohlendorf, who went 11-10 with a solid 3.72 ERA at age 27 for the Pirates last season, picked up the idea after catching a ceremonial first pitch from Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack earlier this season. Ohlehdorf's family raises longhorn cattle in Texas, so it's a natural fit.

"If you know Ross," said Princeton baseball coach Scott Bradley, to the AP, "everything about his life is always about making himself better and making himself more educated. He's not someone who wants to sit and not do anything. This is a perfect fit for him."

Ohlendorf majored in operations research and financial engineering - combining business, engineering and math - at Princeton, and more relevant to baseball was Ohlendorf's senior thesis on sabermetrically evaluating major league teams' first-round draft picks, and their investment value. Tim Kurkjian of ESPN.com wrote about Ohlendorf's findings earlier this year.

Two kinds of arbitration loom large in baseball's offseason

Sunday November 29, 2009

The free agent season is off to a slow start, and part of that is because teams are deciding what they want to do with their own young players who are eligible for arbitration, and coming up with a strategy based on what the other 29 teams do as well.

The first deadline is for free agent compensation arbitration. A player who is already a free agent can agree to arbitration with his 2009 team and take himself off the market. But a team has to offer that arbitration first, and that deadline is today. Teams that offer arbitration can receive compensation in the form of extra draft picks next June (for Type A and Type B free agents). But they also don't want to be stuck with a big contract. It's like a poker call - does management really want that player and would give a player full market value? Does the believe he'll receive bigger money on the open market?

The other kind of arbitration is for players already under control of a team with more than three but less than six years of experience, which is the threshold for free agency. Those players are arbitration-eligible, meaning they're not under contract, but can't be free agents, either. It was put in place to keep good young players from making the big-league minimum until they reached that magic sixth big-league season.

In a boom market - which baseball has pretty much been in for the past generation - offering arbitration to good young players was almost a rubber stamp. Teams want to keep them, the cost typically isn't a lot considering free agent alternatives, and these players are entering the prime of their careers. But because baseball's finances have stopped growing for now - game attendance was down by more than 5 million this year - most teams are looking to lower payroll. And because the arbitration system is tied to the value of what players have made in the past, players might make more than their actual 2010 market value in arbitration.

Last offseason, Phillies slugger Ryan Howard asked for $18 million in arbitration and the Phillies offered $12 million. That was a record for a player who wasn't even eligible for free agency. (He avoided arbitration by agreeing to a three-year deal worth $54 million.) This year's test case is Giants ace Tim Lincecum, who made $650,000 last season and might crack $10 million in arbitration for his fourth season, considering he's won the last two NL Cy Young awards.

Instead of going through the process for players who might not be worth long-term deals, a secondary free agent market might develop among players who are not tendered, meaning they're made free agents even though they're under a team's control already. Many of those players received decent deals in the arbitration system that teams simply can't afford anymore. The Phillies' Jayson Werth and the Red Sox's David Ortiz are two players who were non-tendered earlier this decade. Think the Dodgers and Twins might have made mistakes there?

That secondary market is expected to be heavy this year, and could really create a glut of free agents. MLBtraderumors.com has compiled a list of candidates. The non-tender deadline is Dec. 12.

Confused on the rules? Check out the free agency primer.

White Sox go for the pre-holiday deals

Wednesday November 25, 2009

While 29 teams are still doing a little window shopping for the free agent season, the Chicago White Sox made a beeline for the bargain bin.

For just $500,000 plus incentives, they picked up a five-time All-Star with 10 Gold Gloves who is just 32 years old. Diamond ring or cubic zirconia?

It's Andruw Jones, so we'll lean toward the latter. After a couple of dismal seasons with the Dodgers, Jones didn't improve too much last season in Texas (.214) after a decent start, but he did hit 17 homers in 281 at-bats.

"This is an opportunity to add a power bat to the roster while improving our outfield depth," White Sox general manager Ken Williams told the Chicago Tribune. "With the addition of Andruw, Mark Kotsay and Omar Vizquel, we feel our bench is taking shape to be a strong asset."

The other two are decent bargains, too. Vizquel was the best fielding shortstop of his generation and is a great teammate. He's 43 years old, but hit .266 and made no errors in 62 games as a utility infielder for Texas in 2009.

"He's going to be a Hall of Famer. But we did not hire him to be a coach. We will try to find a lot of playing time for him," White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen told MLB.com.

Kotsay, 32, signed for $1.5 million to stay with the White Sox as a reserve outfielder and first baseman.

So the total payout: $3.375 million for three veterans. And no coupon-cutting required. Not a bad effort before Black Friday has even hit the calendar.

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